A mere two months ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
