A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
